DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/30 10:51
Grain Futures Down Double Digits Midday Tuesday
Corn trade is 16 to 18 cents lower, beans are 16 to 18 cents lower and wheat
is 15 to 30 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 530 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is flat. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are
weaker with crude off $2.80. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down $7.00.
Corn trade is 16 to 18 cents lower at midday Tuesday with trade fading back
into support levels and broad commodity weakness so far Tuesday on renewed
COVID-19 concerns. Ethanol margins have narrowed with the energy move but
demand will remain strong through Christmas. Basis should remain steady to
firmer short term with fall field work likely to make good progress where
supplies are available. On the March contract, we have resistance at the recent
high of $5.96 3/4, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.94, and the 20-day
moving average as support at $5.77, which we have faded through at midday, then
the lower Bollinger Band at $5.51.
Soybean trade is 16 to 18 cents lower at midday with trade fading through
support levels and broad product weakness so far. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower
and oil is 2.70 cents to 2.90 cents lower. South America looks to continue
short-term progress with issues remaining limited for now while the extended
forecast remaining mixed for crop development short term. Crush margins remain
solid but further product weakness will limit enthusiasm. USDA announced
132,000 metric tons sold to unknown. On the January soybean chart, we fell
below the 20-day at $12.44 Monday, with further support the lower Bollinger
Band at $11.95.
Wheat trade is 15 to 30 cents lower at midday as March becomes front month
with trade backing further off the highs amid broad weakness. The Minneapolis
contract is holding up best so far with Australian harvest to expand soon. The
dollar is just below 96 points, fading further off the highs before bouncing
back at midday. Weather in the Plains looks little changed short term with
longer-term dry concerns for the Southern Plains heading toward dormancy with
92% emerged versus 91% on average with 44% good to excellent and 23% poor to
very poor. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago moving the premium to 2.35
cents on the March, with KC at a 33-cent premium in weaker action so far. KC
March chart support is at the 20-day at $8.29, which we are testing at midday
with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $8.90 with the fresh high at
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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