DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/08 10:56

   Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Soybeans Mixed

   Corn futures are 1 cent lower to 4 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean 
futures are flat to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are 5 to 17 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 cent lower to 4 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean 
futures are flat to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are 5 to 17 cents higher. The 
U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 17. The U.S. Dollar Index is 70 
points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude 
.85 lower and natural gas off .01. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals 
are firmer with gold up 23.50.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 cent lower to 4 cents higher at midday with trade firming 
back from 6 to 10 cents lower early in the overnight trade. We are waiting for 
weekend rains, further out forecasts, and Friday's WASDE report. Ethanol 
margins should remain solid in the near term, with unleaded holding gains with 
fading basis more favorable for summer production. On Friday's USDA reports, 
trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 1.449 billion bushels (bb), up 
slightly from last month; new crop at 2.254 bb, also up slightly. Weekly export 
sales were still soft at 172,200 metric tons (mt) of old crop and -106,800 mt 
(cancellations) of new. Basis continues to hold a softer tone with the second 
crop in Brazil heading toward the homestretch with some recent rains, and a 
cold front that could hurt some of the last-planted corn in the coming days. On 
the July chart we have support at the 20-day moving average of $5.87 with trade 
pressing back toward the recent high at $6.14.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are flat to 7 cents higher with spread action remaining 
firm. Trade is firming back from the early overnight weakness with oil retaking 
the lead during the day session. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 100 to 
115 higher. Weekly export sales remained mostly soft at 207,200 mt old crop; 
264,600 mt new; meal 177,600 old and 90,000 new; -300 of old oil and 100 of 
new. On the report Friday, trade will be looking for 223 mb of old-crop 
carryout and 345 mb of new, up slightly from last month. Basis will likely 
remain a little softer with most buyers rolling to the back months. Planting 
should be on the homestretch nationally with the east remaining drier in the 
short term before broader rains should boost emergence over the weekend. July 
chart support is the 20-day moving average of $13.44, which we closed solidly 
above, with the Upper Bollinger Band well above the market at $14.04.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 5 to 17 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis leading. 
Volatile rangebound action is likely to continue, along with significant action 
between contract spreads with KC/Chicago at the narrowest level in weeks after 
sliding 20 cents Wednesday and firming back 4 cents Thursday morning. On the 
report Friday, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 606 mb up slightly, 
and new crop at 569 mb also up slightly. Weekly export sales were mediocre at 
234,800 mt. Warmer weather may stress spring wheat in the short term, but 
otherwise we are caught up after the slow start. Plains harvest should pick up 
around rains this week as well, keeping us near an average pace there. There 
are some concerns with the longer-term weather pattern for Australia as well. 
The dollar is just off the recent highs, with Matif wheat holding slightly 
higher. On the KC July chart the $8.00 level, which we have tested Thursday 
morning, remains resistance, with the lower Bollinger band at $7.61 as support. 

   **

   Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Friday as we go through the 
numbers, discuss what they mean for prices and hear DTN Lead Analyst Todd 
Hultman's take on which estimates are reasonable and which are not. We also 
welcome and make time for questions. Register here for Friday's June WASDE and 
Crop Production reports webinar: https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars    

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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